Mercredi 10 juin 2009 3 10 /06 /Juin /2009 20:40

Resolving the Chadian Political Epilepsy: An Assessment of Intervention Efforts

Chad’s political economy is littered with the wreckage of failed attempts at
resolving the country’s intractable political crisis. Since independence, Chad has
not witnessed any constitutional transfer of power. Its political history is a story of
drawn-out conflicts with incidental cessation of hostilities, peace agreements and
national elections.2 In reality, these events have merely provided an opportunity
for alignment, realignment and, in the process, preparation for the next battle.
The attack on N’Djamena in February 2008 might not be the last of these.3
As Chad’s belligerents flex their muscle for yet another round of a violent contest
for the soul of the Chadian state, the stage seems set for renewed violence.
Hopefully they are grandstanding for potential negotiation. Against this backdrop,
it is imperative to interrogate whether the international community so far has
been right about Chad, and, if not, why and what could be done to improve the
situation? Considering the present international response to the crisis, is there any
political incentive for President Déby’s regime to accommodate a robust political
solution that will usher in peace; is the regime prepared to pay the political cost of
peace – at least from a human security perspective?
This situation report analyses and presents an update on the domestic and
international responses to the Chadian crisis. It concludes that though the current
policy approach is certainly not a panacea to the Chadian crisis, it is a good starting
point. Whilst the present policy approach suffers from some content and design
flaws, the principal challenges and problems facing the current peace efforts
are piecemeal implementation and the absence of a coordinated and integrated
mechanism to ensure implementation, monitoring and evaluation. Moreover,
one cannot discount the near absence of political will from the international
community (African Union – AU, US, France, China, Libya and Sudan) to pressure
Déby and the rebels to address les questions qui fâchent.
The report begins by examining the competing policy debate; then it examines
the actors and their interest; the policy interventions and political negotiations
undertaken so far, and finally, it explores possible scenarios and proposes some
policy options to resolve the Chadian crisis.
Par TCHADENLIGNE - Publié dans : TCHAD
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